Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 13.085523 15.266492 17.641420 20.412234 23.548415 26.980125 31.011235
2024-12-29 9.939303 12.978068 16.604831 21.217169 26.888060 33.591664 42.070616
2025-01-05 7.714327 11.115304 15.507586 21.512064 29.410785 39.341041 52.647242
2025-01-12 6.104094 9.608532 14.461756 21.524457 31.362411 44.379455 62.662606
2025-01-19 4.957298 8.459148 13.623376 21.564957 33.189182 49.254222 72.727986
2025-01-26 4.468664 8.162154 13.901738 23.136004 37.203201 57.329189 87.663904
2025-02-02 3.952412 7.707081 13.839493 24.132223 40.401375 64.425092 101.665223
2025-02-09 3.514177 7.290798 13.753869 25.034586 43.476759 71.498171 116.040789
2025-02-16 2.998050 6.632437 13.156877 25.004318 45.036252 76.344744 127.353831
2025-02-23 2.483304 5.872006 12.261386 24.337473 45.454945 79.395134 136.045121
2025-03-02 2.027196 5.132117 11.284868 23.388302 45.268660 81.408408 143.160271
2025-03-09 1.765571 4.746780 10.915881 23.476168 46.833151 86.309783 155.098933
2025-03-16 1.485869 4.272402 10.321354 23.108059 47.622627 90.088755 165.645460
2025-03-23 1.371805 4.165950 10.469560 24.198270 51.158640 98.768554 184.858341
2025-03-30 1.216650 3.922588 10.287423 24.600274 53.434332 105.396760 200.964517
2025-04-06 1.057648 3.630937 9.951791 24.640319 55.008974 110.868998 215.368454
2025-04-13 0.922303 3.370032 9.643812 24.695300 56.600695 116.445906 230.224015
2025-04-20 0.898197 3.426972 10.100676 26.462736 61.735465 128.770448 257.600561
2025-04-27 0.840252 3.367822 10.262295 27.581660 65.625154 138.984386 281.657657
2025-05-04 0.781927 3.293525 10.374007 28.593838 69.360075 149.094541 305.975393
2025-05-11 0.685364 3.067127 10.054447 28.560098 70.883143 155.064131 322.968618
2025-05-18 0.575478 2.760684 9.467329 27.812573 70.802950 157.911080 334.277298
2025-05-25 0.472166 2.442279 8.787802 26.747920 69.922873 159.107749 342.499819